November 7, 2015

REALITY OF STAFF

Cub fans may think the front office has a blank check to spend in 2016 because of the strong finish to the 2015 season.

Think again.

The Cubs know they have two top tier starters in Lester and Arrieta. They have the top 2 rotation slots filled already.

The Cubs need #3 and #4 starters. And the business side will not allow the team to overspend on those two positions.

Besides, the Cubs have a few positional questions (CF, for example), and will have to re-tool half of the bullpen, again.

So those who have their sites on the Cubs landing Price, Zimmerman or Greinke in free agency, forget about it. The Cubs are not going to spend another $150 to $210 million on another arm.

It is more likely the Cubs target pitchers like Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir.

Leake, 27, went 11-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 2.9 WAR for two clubs in 2015. He was paid $9.775 million.

Kazmir, 31, went 7-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 3.3 WAR in 2015. He was paid $13 million.

One would expect these pitchers to command $12-15 million per season (depending upon discount for number of years of the contract).

Signing both these pitchers would be nice, but would probably eat up the entire off season FA budget. One has to realize that the Cubs do not have a real good lead off/center field option on their current roster. Fowler was the catalyst for the Cubs offense. When he did well, the team did well. I do not see the Cubs trying to move an infielder (Castro or Baez) into center to fill a need in-house. The transition to center field is a tough position to learn on the fly.

At best, the Cubs will sign one second tier starter, use Hendricks at #4 and try to cobble together a fifth starter from the minors during spring training.