As I predicted, the Cubs are not going to be big free agent spenders this off-season.
The Sun-Times reported the "Cubs are still waiting for business president
Crane Kenney’s promised wheelbarrow of cash to find its way to baseball
president Theo Epstein’s office."
Theo Epstein said he did not expect the kind of spending on free agent pitching
national baseball pundits seem to assume the Cubs have planned this
winter – no matter how much more the Cubs plan to draw at Wrigley Field
next year or make on ballpark/video board sponsorships.
As
much as David Price might want to reunite with his old manager, Joe
Maddon, in Chicago, his Price tag could put him out of the Cubs’ reach. The article stresses that the Cubs effective payroll was $120 million in 2015, of which $20 million was carry-over from prior years. The whole emphasis on drafting and signing international players for cheap control was the blueprint sold to the fans four years ago. Ownership is not going to open the checkbook when Ricketts is in the costly beginning of massive construction projects to Wrigley Field and surrounding properties.
The article believes that the Cubs 2016 payroll could be at best $130 million, about $10 million more than last season. Considering the amount of empty roster slots in CF, starting pitching, half the bullpen and arbitration players like Arrieta, the unspent $30 million for 2016 would have to be parsed between ten to twelve players.
What the meetings probably don’t signify is any inclination by the Cubs’ brass to attempt to add two high-end free agents. Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have recently downplayed that possibility. “If we want to do two things we have to get pretty creative,” Epstein said, referring to managing payroll.
“Even if we do one really big thing we have to get creative. We have
the ability to add a little bit from where we are right now. I don’t
think we have room to do everything that’s been speculated in some
areas.”
So Epstein has publicly admitted what we assumed for a year or more. He does not control the Cubs checkbook. As such, he cannot create a complete vision of his Cubs team. As a result, it has to be frustrating to deal with the business side of the organization. And this may be the reason there is no talk for an Epstein contract extension because he may believe this is an unworkable situation.
With his hands tied by the business side, the baseball guys have to be "creative" if they want to sign a big money free agent. That means two things: 1) add more years and greater amount of "dead money" to the end of a deal or 2) create more payroll space by trading away higher priced players. It seems the only true alternative is the trade route.
To open up payroll space, the most likely candidates would be:
Montero, who is owed $28 million for the next two years;
Castro, who is owed $40.43 million over next four years (with $1 million buyout of option);
Soler, who is owed 21.35 million over next five years, but has an opt out after three.
Montero is owed $14 million for 2016; Castro, $7.86 million; and Soler, $3.76 million.
The Cubs would have to move Montero and Castro to free up enough cash to sign a top tier starter.
the Cubs would have to move Castro and Soler to free up enough cash to sign a second tier starter.
If Schwarber can catch, then Montero is expendable. If the Cubs move Castro, Baez can play second. If the Cubs move Soler, RF becomes another outfield hole to fill in free agency. This also ties the Cubs off-season moves because the current roster does not have the quality depth to take a starter's place for an entire season.
