August 14, 2015

THE DINOSAUR CALLED A WALK

People don't come to the ball park and pay $100/ticket to watch superstars walk.

"Chicks did the long ball."

Remember?

Well CNBC noticed that walks are way down while strikeouts are way up.


The article states that through August, Major League Baseball saw an average of 2.8 walks per game. If the season were to end there, that would be the lowest level since the 1920s. Similarly, a lot of the stats show that pitching is dominating over hitting.  Strikeouts are up, batting average is down, among other key statistics.

"It's like capitalism," said Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane. "You have a void that needs to be filled, and a whole generation of kids that see it. You've got talent in the pitching department now that is so far above what it was in the past." -
"Back in the 1990s, there was a panic in the industry about lack of pitching," Beane told CNBC. "Now you have a big wave of pitching that is physically so much different." 

Beane noted the increase in physical domination of today's pitcher. "When I was playing, you might have a few guys that threw over 90 miles per hour, but now you have entire staffs where average velocity on fastballs is 2-3 mph faster than a few years ago." 

The average fastball in the first half of 2015 left the pitcher's hand at 91.7 mph, according to Major League 

Baseball's pitch(f)x database. That's more than a full mph faster than the 2008 average of 90.6.

All-Star hitters agree. "The pitchers these days throw harder and can throw their off-speed pitches for strikes," Mark Teixeira told CNBC. "They're just better." 

The New York Yankees first baseman agreed with Beane that this year in particular has been different. "It is definitely getting hard to walk in the big leagues. I feel the trend started a few years ago and is getting more pronounced this season."

During the steroid era, hitters were much more aggressive at the plate because the key stats to earn large contracts were home runs and RBIs. The big hitters got the big money. It did not matter that they swung and missed at a ton of pitches. It really did not matter that their batting average was below .270. To them, an out was an out - - - it did not matter whether it was a strikeout or a long fly ball to the CF on the warning track.

One of the keys to the Cubs current success has been "draft bats, buy pitching."  The young Cub hitters can hit for power, but have been drilled to "accept" a walk to keep an inning alive. That is team play in an generation that is mostly focused on "I."

The Blue Jays recent surge has been triggered by adding more bats to an already potent line up.

On the other hand, the Mets have done the opposite. "Draft pitching, acquire bats."  The Mets have the finest young rotation in the majors. It has been dominate all year. The old school saying is "good pitching will always defeat good hitting" is the motto for a Mets playoff run.

Why there are less walks and more strikeouts is because there is no stigma attached to striking out. You don't feel bad or get razzed when you sulk back to the dugout after a K. Likewise, no one rewards a player for getting a walk. It does not add points to a batting average. It is like a kindergarten star on a hand-traced turkey because even teams that stress OBP don't hold their players to it.