July 13, 2015

SELLER'S MARKET

This year will be a Seller's market. With so much divisional parity, no club except a few, will think they cannot get into the wild card race if the team goes on a 10 game winning streak.

So most pundits believe that there will be very few Sellers this year. Which means Sellers will control the market, and ask for more in return than normal.  Beyond the question on how desperate teams will be to improve before the deadline, which Seller could surprise.

The Tigers. The preseason AL Central champ may be the best Seller of the year. If management decides to pull the plug on their pending free agents. But even then, rentals don't get big prospect returns as teams have begun hoarding their prospects and cheap, controllable assets.


At the All-Star break, the Tigers are currently sitting nine games out of first place. The pesky Royals continue to win. Rumors in Detroit indicate the Tigers  may sell at the trade deadline despite general manager Dave Dombrowski's comments to the contrary. 

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo believes a trade involving pending free agency ace lefty David Price is not out of the question if the Tigers do decide to start rebuilding for the future. Price would be the best pitcher available, with Jeff Samardzija second. 

The Tigers have left big money pitchers go in the recent past. There is no indication that ownership is going to commit $200 million to Price. So the question is, do the Tigers win it this year with Price? The current odds seem to say no. Hence, the trade speculation.

Every team in contention is looking to upgrade their pitching staffs. Price would be an immediate upgrade to any rotation. One would expect the Tigers to ask for at least three prime prospects for Price, including a major league ready starting pitcher. Any team trading for Price may think about asking for an extension as part of the deal, which puts big market teams like Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays at the table.

The price may be less for Samardzija, who has repeatedly stated he wants to get to free agency to test his market value. The White Sox are less interested in acquiring a replacement starting pitcher for the Shark so there may be more flexibility in dealing with the White Sox.
The Tigers also have three other pending free agents that could be highly prized in this trade market: Yoenis Cespedes, Joakim Soria and Rajai Davis.  

If Rick Hahn raises the white flag, he could get rid of equally valuable chips in Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and one of his lefty relievers, Zach Duke or Dan Jennings.