July 24, 2015

HOLDING TOO LONG

There are times when general managers hold on to their players too long. Trying to trade or sell an asset is best at its peak value. For Starlin Castro and Javy Baez, it was last winter.  Castro has been slumping badly this year, and his fielding is just as suspect. Baez got hurt but prior to that he was demoted to AAA.

ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Cubs have offered Castro and Baez to the Phillies for pitcher Cole Hamels, who has three years and a lot of money owed on his deal.

Stark added, however, that the Phillies are not enthralled with either player. But the Cubs remain determined in their efforts to trade for Hamels.

"I don't think they'll be in the rental market," the executive who has spoken to the Cubs told Stark. "So the value to them, with Hamels, is the three years [left on his contract]. This isn't just about selling out to go for the wild card. It's about getting ahead of [the free-agent ace market] this winter."

The Phillies are a difficult front office to deal with in trades. They ask for too much. But the problem with Hamels is his contract. Very few teams want to eat $68 million plus a potential $24 million vesting option in 2019. As a result, a team wanting Hamels is not going to offer the "best" prospects in order to absorb Hamels' money. But the Phils think Hamels is an elite player so they are entitled to many elite players and prospects in return. 

We know the Cubs front office is enamored by Hamels. Last season when the Phils put him on trade waivers, the Cubs made a claim, meaning Chicago was willing to eat the full contract. But the Phils pulled Hamels back off waivers, and no deal was made between the clubs.

As I said a long time ago, when Derek Jeter was retiring, the Yankees were the best trade partner for Castro. But there was never a hint or rumor that the Cubs-Yankees talked trade.

Baez is like Castro in that he is a free swinging shortstop. Baez has better defensive skills, but overall he has been lost in his own professional wilderness. A family tragedy, and an injury have set back his development into the whisper of his career trending toward very good AAA replacement level player at the MLB level. That label will not get an starting pitcher in the trade market.

There is too much tape on both Castro and Baez to be cornerstone pieces in a trade. They may be throw-in players, but other clubs are rudely asking for Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks or Anthony Rizzo for their best players. The Cubs are going to hold on to their "core" players since that is the whole purpose of their slash and burn rebuild plan.

There is also another problem. The Cubs reportedly only have $5 million left in their baseball budget for payroll additions. Hamels would break the budget. Considering the Cubs are eating $16 million for Edwin Jackson's release, the only type of starter one can get would be a $4 to $5 million 4th starter.
 
The type of player the Cubs could afford would be Cub killer Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake is 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, owed about $5 million left on last year of his contract. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is a rental player for this year's wild card run. The problem with the Reds is that they don't need middle infield help so Castro or Baez are not trade pieces in a potential Leake deal. And the Cubs do not have any real good minor league starting pitching prospects to dangle for a veteran arm.

So the Cubs are stuck with weak trade chips in a Seller's market.