December 3, 2014

NOTES ON THE CUBS

With the winter meetings fast approaching, and the non-tender deadline past, the Cubs like all other teams should be finalizing their winter plans.

It is like an X-Mas list self-evaluation.

The Outfield.  The rock band is still better than the current Cub players.  A platoon of Coghlan-Riggiano, Alcantara and Soler  does not bode well for 2015 and beyond. Soler is the new prototypical free swinger - - - high torque, high power, home runs or bust mentality like Baez. Can he mature and adjust in his first full season is the open question. Alcantara is still playing out of position; he is much more valuable as a second baseman. More likely than not, other clubs will be asking about him in trade because of his power.  Left field is barren. Perhaps, this open stance is because the front office is looking to fill it with either Baez, Bryant or even Castro.

Evaluation: Need major upgrades in left field and center field.

The Infield. The front office continues to claim that Castro is the Cubs core shortstop now and in the future. However, he is the most valuable trade chip the team has (as the Yankees need to replace Jeter). Baez plays a better shortstop than Castro, and Alcantara plays a better second than Baez. Rizzo is going to anchor first base for a long time so that is the only position that is set. Third base is being held for Bryant, who wants to play there and not in the outfield. It is usually better to transition a potential star at his natural position rather than having him learn a new position at the same time as learning major league pitching. Valbuena may also be a trading chip at the winter meetings.

Evaluation: Need upgrade at third (which could be Bryant in June), stability up the middle.

Catcher. There has been a lot of negativity on Castillo. It seems to be mostly unfounded. He is a better defensive catcher than most people think. He is in the upper half in regard to catcher BA. The most probably detriment is potential injury history. But he grades out as a starter. The Cubs were reported to be on the Martin free agent negotiations. With Martin signing with the Blue Jays, the odd man out is D. Navarro, the ex-Cub, who hit .274, 12 HR, 69 RBI in 2014. He could be an upgrade, but not at the cost of a young middle infielder. Baker is a weak back up catcher, so anyone would be an improvement (except for Koy Hill).

Evaluation: Either keep Castillo as the #1, or trade big for an upgrade (Gattis).

Starting Pitching: This has been the trade bin for the Cubs the past several years. The trade and turnover of the starters has been remarkable. The question is whether the Cubs will stop trading starters and actually build a core staff. Arrieta has shown some good stuff, but throughout his career he has never put together back-to-back solid years. Hendricks had a nice debut season, but the league will adjust to him quickly. Neither Arrieta or Hendricks are lock down #1 starters. Wada and Wood are lefty #5 starters at best. E. Jackson is the lump of coal in the stocking. He was supposed to be a solid innings eater, but has been terrible. (There have been plenty of rumors that other teams like him, but no trades means no real interest.) The Cubs have a bunch of other journeymen (Turner, Doubront, Roach, Straily) from other clubs who add spot starter depth.

Evaluation: The Cubs need three quality starters in order to compete. The minor league system is not going to produce quality starters for some time.

Bullpen. The rest of the pitching staff performed above expectations. Grimm, Parker, Ramirez, Strop and Rondon all did quite well in their respective roles. The only upgrade could be adding a lefty specialist to the mix.

Evaluation: The core group is solid, but adding left handers is a possibility.