November 12, 2014

SHOOTING FROM THE HIP

A report surfaced Tuesday night that the Cubs and Nationals were engaged in trade discussions about starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune rebukes the story, stating a Cub source said there has been no discussions of a Zimmerman trade. "He is not available," according to the source.

At the moment Zimmerman would be a one-year rental. Zimmermann is owed $16.5 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent.

However, based on recent free-agent starting pitcher contracts, Zimmermann will be in line for more than $100 million. The guess here is that Zimmermann eventually signs for more than what Homer Bailey got (six years, $105 million) but less than what the Phillies gave Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million).

Something in the five-year, $115 million range seems appropriate for Zimmermann, who has a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons in 96 starts

From the Cubs, the Phillies are likely seeking Kris Bryant and more in a Hamels trade. The Cubs appear unwilling to trade Bryant, their top prospect who hit .325 with 43 homers at Double A and Triple A this past season, his first full one in pro ball. That's just how negotiations begin.

Because Zimmermann is a rental, he would cost the Cubs less in the way of prospects. Chicago may be looking at parting with shortstop Starlin Castro in a proposed Zimmermann deal, or one of their lesser-but-still-intriguing prospects in utilityman Arismendy Alcantara or outfielder Albert Almora.

Other teams will be kicking the Cub tires for hot prospects like Bryant, Javy Baez and Addison Reed, because the Cubs have a surplus of infielders. The Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels last season, so that may indicate the team is willing to take on a $100 million pitching contract. The Phillies are having a fire sale now, and Hamels is still available in trade.

Zimmerman would cost less in trade than Hamels. Zimmerman's contract status versus Hamels' guarantees. The Cubs could flip Zimmerman at the deadline to restock their prospect list.

The problem with a megadeal at this time is that the Cubs really don't know what they really have with their prospects. Bryant could be the next Mike Schmidt or the next Mike Olt. In one respect, the highest value may be now, before any actual major league swings and misses. In another respect, if Bryant is the real deal, a starting All-Star position player is more valuable than a starting pitcher.

The Nationals would need an impact player in return since they are in championship mode. Alcantara does not make sense since the infield is set and Span in CF. Almora is still several years off. To trade Zimmerman, the Nats would need a major league ready pitcher in return (for at least depth) and the Cubs don't have anyone, unless you think Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has too many years of cost control to give up in a pitcher rental deal.

It is a long shot that the Cubs make a Zimmerman deal with the Nationals. 

What is picking up early is a market for shortstops. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners are actively seeking a shortstop. The Cubs have three on the roster available for the right deal.