The constant drum beat of upbeat Cubs euphoria is getting on some people's nerves. The cheerleading about the great Cubs turnaround for 2015 is loud, clear and ridiculous. The bandwagon drivers are spouting off that the Cubs great farm system is going to produce great All Star caliber players right out of the gate because Epstein and Hoyer are boy geniuses who had a plan, and made it work.
The reality check is that the Cubs are following the path of the weakest sister. By putting all one's eggs in the minor league system, and needing home grown talent to be scouted, evaluated, drafted, signed, and most critically, developed, is not an easy task. The Royals have had a good farm system for a long time. But despite those awards, it took the Royals 29 years to get to the post season.
But desperate Cub fans are literally dying for the post season after watching the last terrible four years. There has been some progress in the win column, but the team still finished last in the NL Central. And there has been no commitment that the Cubs are going to veer off this minor league only rebuilding plan by splashing into the deep end of the free agent pool.
With the new tender amount at $15.3 million, even second tier free agents are going to be too expensive in a "small market" rebuild program.
The delusion is even more apparent when the bandwagon claims that the Cubs have Cy Youngsters in Arrieta and Hendricks to take the team to the next level. Arrieta was a touted Orioles prospect who has more bad innings in his career than good ones. Hendricks has not had a full season in the majors, and he has yet to adjust to the league that will learn his pitching technique. Even the solid bullpen may have had concurrent career years - - - Rondon could be the next Riveria or the Next Marmol.
There just is not enough evidence to say that the new Cubs are going to be good next year or the year after. There is more evidence that the big bat prospects have fundamental problems at the plate (an alarming strike out rate). A line up composed mainly of .210 hitters is going to lose 100 games.
Besides the fundamental baseball issues, 2015 cheerleaders have not factored in the probability of injuries. Soler has had an injury every year of his professional career. Hendricks has not pitched a full major league season. Baez has a high torque swing which could lead to back problems. Rizzo has had a bad back at the end of the season. Castro has dinged himself. Castillo has had a heavy workload behind the plate and has had injuries. The Cubs are not deep at any position to sustain a run to be competitive in 2015.
The higher expectations is to draw fans back into the Cubs world - - - i.e., to sell tickets. The expensive Wrigley renovations need cash flow. By marketing to potential season ticket holders "the wait is over" will bring in a few fence sitters. But not enough to make Ricketts borrow money to build the New Wrigley or spend a hundred million dollars on a free agent pitcher.
When the cheerleaders tout the rebuilding plan as a success, they still condition it on the fact that the team needs to fill in the gaps with free agents. Free agents to fill LF, CF and two starting spots. Possibly wanting to upgrade at catcher. Suddenly, you start adding up the "gaps" and you objectively see you still have half the starting positions that are not being adequately filled from within. This is classic double talk. When Ricketts bought the team, he announced it was only one or two players away from a championship. How wrong he was. But it the same story we are hearing now: one or two or three free agents away from a divisional title.
But any free agent will think twice about the Cubs. Recent history shows that quality free agent stars would rather take the money and sign with a real contender (Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Angels) than a last place rebuilding club like the Cubs. Quality free agents are at the peak of their careers, and want to add to their legacy by getting into the postseason now. If the money is the same, who honestly believes Jon Lester is going to sign with the Cubs over the Yankees? Or the Dodgers? Or the Angels? Big market teams that can spend for talent are a bigger drawing card to a free agent than small market who are counting on prospects to win now.
The real expectation for the 2015 Cubs is around 72 wins. And that should not move the fan-o-meter very far toward being "all in" next year.
