October 13, 2014

MEA CULPA

The Tribune reports:

President Theo Epstein hasn't been shy about the Chicago Cubs' aggressive pursuit of landing as many as two marquee pitchers this winter through free agency and perhaps trades.

But Epstein acknowledged the risks of acquiring pitchers, from the rash of season-ending elbow surgeries to the lack of guarantees that landing top starting pitching would assure a World Series title, as the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers discovered.
Epstein didn't mention teams specifically as examples. All he had to do was look at his own roster, as he expressed regrets over the signing of Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million contract before the 2013 season. Since joining the Cubs, Jackson is 14-33 and has two years and $22 million left on his contract with no guarantees of keeping his spot in the rotation for 2015.

“We wouldn’t do it over again,” Epstein told a group of season ticket holders at the Oriental Theatre. “It’s a mistake. But to Edwin’s credit, he’s shown up every day and worked hard.”

Epstein also got a negative return on reliever Kyuji Fujikawa, whom he signed to a two-year, $9.5 million contract before the 2013 season.

>>>  To a house with many disgruntled season ticket holders, Epstein comes clean: he is not infallible. This should signal to the most loyal Theoists that their lord and savior is not perfect. 

The all the eggs in one basket approach is high risk at low cost because home grown talent is a lot cheaper and controllable than an annual spendthrift spending spree in the free agent market. 

Marquee pitchers like Max Scherzer already turned down 7 years/$144 million from the Tigers ($20.5 million/year.) Jon Lester and James Shields will want to command more than that sum as well. 

There is no reason Cubs ownership is willing to spend $300 million on two pitchers when the Ricketts family is in the midst of spending a half billion on real estate projects in and outside of Wrigley Field. The business side may trust Theo to run a baseball team, but not to spend money. Epstein's two big pitching signings have been busts. The stakes are too high to make more costly ones.

Epstein is still selling the season ticket holders and fan base that the turnaround is just around the corner. He states that the goal in 2015 is to be competitive, be a wild card contender. In order for that to happen, all the kids have to play at veteran levels. None of the new guys has a full major league season under their belts. If the cornerstone of the plan is to have Kris Bryant in June put the team on his back and march to the playoffs, that is a fairy tale of epic proportions. 

But Epstein himself is on the clock. His contract has only two years to go. While the business side has given themselves extensions, the baseball side has not. It shows that the priority in this franchise is toward revenue and building projects (as was the case in the dismal reign of P.K. Wrigley) than baseball. 

If Epstein is setting himself up for a pass-fail grade for 2015, there may be a reason for such madness. If the rebuild fails, then he can get himself out of town a year early. If the rebuild works, then he can set his own lucrative terms and wrestle some power back from the business side.