October 30, 2014

MAD ON MADDON

When Rick Renteria was hired as manager, he was touted as a guy who can develop young players, especially Latin talent with language issues.

Under Renteria's first year, the Cubs won 7 more games. That was pretty good.  Does that give Renteria a 7.0 WAR as a manager? No. Most experts believe that a manager wins or loses two games a season. A few believe that a baseball manager has the least influence in the play in any major sport.

In 2013, the Cubs has an offensive WAR of 15.9 and a pitching WAR of 10.5.
In 2013, the Cubs had an offensive WAR of 12.2 and a pitching WAR of 15.7.

Total WAR comparison: 26.4 to 27.9, an increase of 1.5 WAR.

Is this a better measure of Renteria's influence on the 2014 club? Perhaps.

But one has to consider the offense decreased but the pitching staff improved.

The key differences between seasons were three new starters:

Arrieta 5.3 WAR vs. 0.7 WAR (2013 Arrieta)
Hammel 3.1 WAR vs. 0.9 WAR (Feldman)
Hendricks 2.9 WAR vs. 1.5 WAR (Garza)

These three 2014 pitchers made an 11.3 WAR improvement over their 2013 counterparts. But the staff WAR only went up 5.2 WAR. The other starters, especially Edwin Jackson (-2.3) brought the pitching WAR down dramatically.

Joe Maddon's Rays won 92 games in 2013, and lost in the AL divisional series.  In 2014, the Rays stumbled to 77 wins, a decrease of 15 wins. Some Tampa Bay writers believe former GM Andrew Friedman left town because the well of young minor league prospects, the golden goose of the franchise, was drying up and a major rebuild was going to take shape now. Maddon may have seen the writing on the wall, too. At 61, he is in the last run as a major league skipper. He wants to win a World Series to cap his career. Tampa does not seem to be a serious contender in the highly charged AL East. At his age, he would want to win now.

When Maddon surprised the baseball world by opting out of his contract, every major league team except the Twins had a 2014 manager.  The Cubs had already said Renteria would return as the season ended. But does Maddon really fit the Cubs?

 Maddon is a "celebrity" manager - - - a proven winner, especially hard to do in a small market. That is the resume highlight. He puts a new face on the team. He is good with the media. It also strikes me that if the Cubs continue the small market payroll, Maddon would be a good puzzle piece.

On the negative side, Maddon could sit a season and have many more choices with free spending teams. Writers say that the motivation to leave the Rays is that he wants to be paid as a premier manager. He may not be comfortable with the Cubs rebuilding plan, or the lack of pitching depth. He may need real assurances that the Cubs will spend big money to shore up the roster in 2015 before committing to a four year deal.

History is also not on the Cubs side. There was a great deal of hope each time the Cubs hired a "name" manager: Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Lou Piniella.  Each of those proven winners crashed and burned with the Cubs. Piniella remarked after his tenure he had no idea about the expectations and pressures managing the Cubs. It wore him out.

The other problem Maddon faces in negotiating with the Cubs is that the team already has finalized its coaching staff for 2015. A manager would like to bring his own people, if possible, to fill the vital roles of bench, hitting and pitching coach. But that would not be the case if Maddon joins the Cubs.

As of this post, the reports of Maddon coming to terms with the Cubs have been tempered by other reports claiming that negotiations are still on-going, but expect a contract to be concluded soon.