October 17, 2014

A MID-SUMMER DREAM

A fan posted this mid-2015 lineup card for the Cubs:

C: Castillo
1B: Rizzo
2B: Castro
SS: Russell
3B: Baez
LF: Bryant
CF: Alcantra
RF: Soler

SP: Scherzer/Shields/Lester
SP: Arrieta
SP: Wood
SP: Whatever
SP: Whatever

The surplus of young shortstops are fit into four starting positions. And Kris Bryant moves from third, his natural position, to left field. In fact, half of the starting eight will be playing a new position.

It is fine to speculate what your team could, should, or would look like in a perfect (fantasy) world.

Yes, Baez could be better than Valbuena at third. Yes, Castro could move over to second. Bryant moving to left would be better than Coghlan.

But the poster stumbles across the Big problem that will hold back promotion of young talent and the signing of free agents: starting pitching.  If you think 40% of your rotation is "Whatever," i.e. replacement level AAA talent, then the team won't draw an elite starting pitcher. So the Cubs midsummer dream projects into a nightmare: 60% of your rotation is in flux.



Can the front office rework the starting rotation into a competitive five? If it was that easy, every team would be able to do it. The Cubs have the young talent to trade for proven pitchers, but it seems that the brain trust has fallen in love with their prospects to the point of hoarding them. This may be because this is their plan, their players and they need to prove to the world that they know what they are doing. Many organizations fall into this trap of overvaluing their own prospects and not seeing the big roster needs.