Tommy Lasorda once said, "No matter
how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No
matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's
the other third that makes the difference."
Lasorda is probably overstating his case. Statistically, a good manager may actually win only one or two games for his team by his in-game decisions, but a bad manager could lose a team three to five. Since the game is played on the field, the players executing their assigned tasks are the most important aspect of wins and losses. However, there is recognition that a manager needs to put his players in the best position to succeed. Letting a starter who is out of gas continue to pitch, like Dusty Baker did during the Cubs NLCS, led to a demoralizing team collapse.
Lasorda's take on a long season is based on his experience. Every team will lose at least 54 games. Every team will win at least 54 games. So how a team performs in the remaining 54 games is the key to the season. A .500 team only needs to win 27 of those contests. So for a team to be good to competitive, the season really comes down to those last 27 games.
But those last 27 games are not necessarily at the end of season. Those could be critical contests in April, where teams with great starts tend to be front runners throughout the season. It comes down to about 9 three game series. Even if you go .500 in those 27 games, your team would win 94.5 games.
If you have an ace starter going in those 9 big series, the chances are you are more likely to win. If you have another near ace quality starter also pitching those series, you are more likely to take 2 of 3 games. So that takes the equation down to 18 critical games.
Even if a manager is tuned to this statistical dissection, one cannot manage the post-season like the regular season. In the post-season, you must play each game like it is an elimination game. There is much more pressure on the players. A good manager will try to shift the pressure to the other team, by forcing play on the field with base stealing, bunt hits, long at bats to wear down a pitcher. A good manager will also use his pitching staff differently, especially near the end of a series. An ace starter may be a better option from the pen in a game seven than the set-up man. And these decisions are magnified by the situation; and second guessing becomes a blood sport.
So it is not an exact science to determine whether Matheny deserves any of the fan wrath. On the other side, Ned Yost of the Royals had been considered a terrible manager during his career. But his team, despite his reputation, is in the World Series. This is one of the quirks of baseball. You never know.
