MLBTR has a detailed analysis of the Cubs 2015 roster commitments and potential areas that the team will address in the off season.
The Cubs have few guaranteed contracts in 2015: Castro, Rizzo, E. Jackson, Soler and Sweeney. It gives the Cubs great flexibility.
The Cubs have several players who are arbitration eligible: Baker, Wright, McDonald, Coghlan, Valbuena, Ruggiano, T. Wood, Strop, Arrieta, Doubront and Castillo.
The Cubs have contract options for pitchers Fujikawa, Wada and Turner.
RP Villaneuva is a free agent.
MLBTR article notes that some dead money is coming off the books, namely Soriano's which means the Cubs only currently owe $25.5MM to five players under contract for 2015. They could spend another $17MM or so on arbitration eligible players, bringing total commitments to around $43MM for 16 players (64% of the roster).
When one factors in the Cubs will probably keep the following players at major league minimums: P Grimm, Hendricks, Ramirez, Vizcaino, Rondon, C Lopez, IN/OF Alcantara, Baez, Watkins, that is 24 players on the opening day roster at a payroll of around $47 million.
The holes are the same ones for the last few seasons.
SP: Arrieta, Hendricks, T. Wood, Doubront and either Turner or Wada, if tendered, are the current rotation.
OF: Soler, Alcantara and Coghlan are your current starting outfielders, with Sweeney and Watkins back ups.
IN: Valbuena, Castro, Baez and Rizzo are set until Bryant makes his debut in late June.
C: Castillo is the starter, and Lopez will probably take Baker's spot to save some money.
People believe the Cubs have critical areas to upgrade: LF, CF, 3B, C and SP. Only Bryant's promotion will solve one of those concerns.
The bullpen of Grimm, Strop, Wright, Vizcaino and Rondon is pretty much set.
What is an appropriate payroll for the 2015 Cubs? MLBTR suggests the middle of the pack with a $110 million payroll, or a $70 million war chest to spend on free agents like SP Lester or Shields.
But as I have predicted, the Cubs will not spend greatly in the off season on Tier 1 free agents. On paper and media speculation, the money is there, but in reality with all the construction projects and other activities of ownership, the money has been spent elsewhere.
The only reason the baseball side will push for more spending is that Epstein's contract is up in two years (2017), which is prior to the alleged television windfall of 2020. Epstein may be starting to feel the pressure of his rebuilding plan making the Cubs a real force in the NL Central. He will probably be told to ride his prospects through 2015, and if they show the consistency and improvement to be real major league contributors, then 2016 will be the year to spend real money on quality free agents.
