September 9, 2014

WOODEN ARM

Travis Wood has probably pitched himself off the Cubs 2015 roster.

Wood came over from the Reds in the Shaun Marshall deal.  It started off well for the Cubs.

In 2012, Wood went 6-13, 4.27 ERA, 1.199 WHIP and 0.7 WAR.  This is acceptable for a back of the rotation starter on a bad team.

In 2013, Wood was an All-Star. He went 9-12, 3.11 ERA, 1.145 WHIP and 4.4 WAR. He was probably the most consistent starter on the staff that season.

In 2014, Wood regressed badly. He has gone 8-12, 5.15 ERA, 1.543 WHIP and negative 0.8 WAR. Some observers think that Wood may be pitching hurt. Others think the league may have caught up to his style of pitching since he can't overpower hitters.

He is under team control through arbitration through 2017. As a lefty starter, that is an in-demand commodity for any team.

The Cubs are stock piling a bunch of starting pitchers with histories that are similar to Wood's. Whether Jacob Turner returns to his prospect scouting sheet hype is unknown. Yoshi Wada has been a nice addition, but he is another lefty soft-tosser new to the league this year. And Kyle Hendricks looks Maddux-like in some of his starts, but does he have long term control to be an effective #2 starter? Jake Arrieta took over for Jeff Samardzija and looked better than advertised, but even Arrieta has slowly slid back to being around a .500 pitcher.

It is rare to find a starting pitcher with a consistent long term career. Those guys get the hundred million dollar deals.

The Cubs need to evaluate Wood closely this off-season. Was he injured or have a tired arm? Is there a mechanical flaw? Or as with many major league players, he has run his course and is destined to be a journeyman like former Pirate,  Zach Duke.