July 10, 2014

ROSTER CULLING

The Cubs lost five games after the Samardzija-Hammel trade. That is to be expected when the team goes into extended spring training mode for the rest of the season.

The revolving door to Iowa has opened and this minor league portal is delivering Beeler, Rusin, Wada, Hendricks and Alcantara (who is to sub for Barney who is on paternity leave for two games).

The one player not expected to be called up is Bryant, because the team does not want to start his arbitration clock until next year. For a team that claims that it has enough money to spend, taking a three year view out to save a year's arb increase seems petty.

The Cubs have to do extended spring training at the majors now because their entire roster needs to be reshuffled next season.  We have enough body of work on Olt, Lake, Schierholtz, Barney, Sweeney, Ruggiano, Kalish, Baker and Coghlan. They are all bad.

And considering that the bullpen will be taxed if rumors are true that teams are asking about LHRPs Russell and Wright before the trade deadline, the Cubs need to work out at least four potential 2015 starters and three relief pitchers to see if the organization has any sustainable major league talent under its control.

It seems like the accumulation of infield prospects and the lack of outfield talent is part of the plan to move the athletic infielders to new positions in the outfield. Some believe Alcantara will be a centerfielder, and Baez will wind up in left field. Bryant may stick at third, or move to right field. At present, none of these players has any real experience in those new spots. But front office personnel say that it is an easy transition because athletes are athletes.

Some fans are already penciling in their 2015 line-up cards with AAA and AA prospects like this is a Strat-O-Matic game. It is too early for that. It is too early to project 2015, let alone 2016 and beyond. Lake was hitting .295 in AAA prior to being promoted; now he has settled in at an up-and-down .250 roller coaster at the majors. In 2012, Olt was the talk of AA ball hitting .288 with 28 HR and 82 RBI. He was and untouchable prospect. With the Cubs, he is hitting a low .150 with some power. The level of competition gets greater, the probability of injury increases and a player's true ceiling comes into focus the closer one gets to the majors. So one cannot fully project any minor league player's talent with any sort of accuracy.

But the Cubs are close to running out of time with the patient fan base. The major league roster should turn over by 50%. It is going to be sink-or-swim for many of the Cubs prospects in 2015 because next year will be their best chance to make their mark. This is all conditional on whether Epstein-Hoyer will let them try.