In certain respects, the Cubs have mimicked the Astros in the course of recent draft history. The Astros have tanked many seasons in order to get the top draft picks. In theory, high picks like #1s are easier to identify potential star players.
But with all draft prospects, even picking high does not yield high grades.
In the past four drafts, the Astros have selected the following first round players:
2010 (#8) Delino DeShields Jr., OF
Currently AA ball: .239 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI
2010 (#19) Mike Foltynewicz RHP
Current AAA ball: 7-6, 5.12 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB
2010 (#33) Michael Kvasnicka C
Twins AA ball: .275 BA, 9 HR, 44 RBI
(Acquired RHP Gonzlo Sanudo: A ball: 3-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.283 WHIP)
2011 (#11) George Springer OF
Astros: 78 GP, .231 BA, 20 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 1.8 WAR
2012 (#1) Carlos Correa SS
Current A ball: .325 BA, 6 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB
2013 (#1) Mark Appel, RHP
Current A ball: 1-5, 10.80 ERA, 2.087 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB
2014 (#1) Brady Aiken
Current: Failed to Sign
While many teams have promoted their best 2010 prospects to the majors, the Astros, with three picks, have not had any one set the minor league world on fire. 2011 first rounder George Springer made a huge splash in his debut this season. He has shown the power numbers to stick in the majors, but his batting average (plate disclipine) is light. All in all, Houston is pleased with Springer's progress.
Likewise, 2012 #1 overall pick Correa is doing well in A ball. Remember, he was a high school draft choice so many teams allow for more low minor league time to get adjusted to pro ball. However, 2013 #1 overall pick Appel has been disappointing in A ball. A college standout pitcher, Appel was seen as a difficult signing in 2011. In 2012, he was classified as the best pitching prospect. Clearly, the hype has not translated into pro ball.
The fiasco about the injury-non-injury status of 2014's overall #1 pick Aiken also sets back the 2014 draft as a total bust. The juggling of the slot bonus pool with Aiken, and the pull back of offers, led to Houston losing their next two prized draft choices as well.
This is a real cautionary tale that any major league baseball fan needs to appreciate. In 7 first round draft picks, the Astros have currently only 1 major leaguer (Springer). That is a 14.2% success rate. Of the other six minor leaguers, only 1 has met his pre-draft potential (Correa). So there is a 17% chance that another first rounder will become a major league starter. Even the best prospects don't necessarily pan out.
The Astros main strategy was to draft high and acquire six years of cheap control of home grown major league players. With the lack of first round success, it will be hard to imagine the plan coming together any time soon.
