July 25, 2014

FUTURE CALLS

In the financial commodity business, there are instruments in which people can lock in a specific price for a good for delivery at a future time. These future calls are used to hedge against wild market swings in price. If you lock in a price you are willing to pay today for delivery next January, a business can budget more accurately than trying to buy the goods in January at open market prices. If you lock in lower than that market price, then you are ahead of the game.

The Cubs original plan was to have their wave of future call-ups of their top prospects several years from now, around 2017-2018, based upon the slow promotion of talent in the low minors.

But after the Samardzija and Hammel trade, there had to be a sudden budgetary shift inside the Cubs front office because the team is now moving to promote young players faster than expected.

Very few people thought Kyle Hendricks would be called up this soon, even in spot starter duty. The same was true for Dallas Beeler. But since the Cubs system is so thin on starting pitchers, the front office's hands were tied. But since they performed pretty well for rookies, it returned the near dead "hope" moniker to Cubland.

Then the call-up of A. Alcantara was a surprise to replace Darwin Barney who was on paternity leave for a couple of games. Alcantara had a blistering start (very much like Junior Lake the year before). And when Barney returned to the club, he was Wally Pipped, given his release as Alcantara had taken his roster spot.

Now, terrible third baseman Mike Olt was been sent back down (in order to get Wada on the roster for another spot start), there is speculation that the open 40 man roster spot will be filled by Javy Baez, who has been taking grounders at second in Iowa. Baez is either the Cubs #1, #1A or #2 prospect, depending on your scouting service.

With Alcantara moving the CF, Baez going to play second and Olt being demoted to open up third base, the whispers of an early Kris Bryant September call up are in the air. Bryant has hit at every level in the minors, so there is no reason to waste his at bats in AAA (even though Epstein said there was no way Bryant was making the team this year.) If Bryant does get a late season call up, the Cubs have altered their plan to try to win sooner than later.

The Cubs are so far behind (on the business side) that the baseball operations has to take the lead in order to stem the tide of red ink. Adding young, exciting prospects to the major league roster does create interest from a fan base that had written off this season.

If Bonifacio can get his legs again and hit, he will be traded before the deadline. If a team is looking for a 5th outfielder, Coghlan is gone. Or Sweeney. Or Lake. In other words, the trend is to open positions for the call-ups. Jorge Soler, who is on the 40 man roster, has been promoted to AAA ball. It is expected that he will get a September call up and play RF.  Soler, who has been set back by hamstring injuries, was one of the new front office's "big" signs so they want, and need, to see some tangible results from Soler.

The view that the September Cubs will be more interesting than the April Cubs is apparent. The call-ups present a dress rehearsal for the Future Cubs. It is also possible that such a newly constructed squad will stem the tide of dropping gate and increasing no-shows which have hurt the Cubs team finances. Do not forget, no matter what is said, the Cubs and its owners are all about the money.

It is possible that a September Cub line up could be:

1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Soler rf
7. Castillo c
8. Lake lf

There are a lot of "slash" hitters in that line-up, and the possibility of high strike out rates. Is it enough "hope" to bring fans flocking back to the ball park? Only the future will tell.