July 18, 2014

EVEN NUMBERS GUYS CAN'T ADD

The Cubs may be a woeful franchise, but at least they are not the Astros.Yet.

The Astros had the first pick in the draft (again). They made an under slot offer to their  selection, high school pitcher Brady Aiken. A deal was inked for $6.5 million, subject to passing a physical. The Astros also had a deal with their 5th round pick, Jacob Nix, for an over-slot deal. The same was rumored with another hard to sign guy, 21st rounder Mac Marshall.  The saber-guru plan was to move the slot money around to get three quality prospects for the price of one (and a half).

But the house of cards fell a part when the Astros front office, including sabermetric favorite and new GM Jeff Luhnow, had an issue with an undersized UCL ligament in his throwing elbow. The Astros medical concern was that this abnormality would lead to Tommy John surgery. So the team invoked an "injury" clause in the CBA to offer a 40% of slot deal to Aiken. Aiken and his camp balked, saying he was not injured. That is his natural body, and he throws fine with it. Aiken's advisors cried foul and were claiming the medical studies and opinions were false.

Today's signing deadline passed with MLB.com reporting that the Astros failed to sign Aiken, Nix or Marshall.  However, the Astros will receive the No. 2 pick in next year’s draft because the team Houston did at least offer Aiken 40 percent of his slot value ($3,168,840), which Aiken did not accept.

Obviously, losing three players will set back the Astros rebuilding plan. The Astros have been tanking for years to get back to back Number One picks to boost their core young talent. New owner Jim Crane has slashed the payroll to pitiful levels (according the players association). And the Astros new local cable deal has been a financial disaster.

All the elements of a disaster movie have come to roost in Houston.  Smart number crunching looking for loopholes to juice the system sometimes themselves get squeezed out of the action. As the Astros start to bring up good prospects like George Springer, then are other "great" prospects like pitcher Mark Appel crashing in Class A.

And this story is why Cubs fans have to be cautious about their expectations. The Cubs front office is following the Astro path more than the Boston Way.