GRILLED MEAT

As the first long, holiday weekend of the season is upon us, there is a ton of marinated meats being seared on grills.  Likewise, the Cubs are being grilled into bits of charcoal as they have now lost 12 in a row with no signs of turning the streak around.

There is an old saying, "you have to hit rock bottom before you can move up." Well, Cub fans thought the team hit rock bottom in April. The current record is the 5th worst in team history, equaling the 1962 squad. The 12 game losing streak is the second longest in team history (14 is within sights).

While Cubs president Theo Epstein came into town with a vague message about re-tuning the team to bring about a championship, owner Tom Ricketts banned the use of the term "re-building." Re-building does not sell tickets or bring excitement to the ball park. Ricketts sole focus has been ball park improvements instead of team improvements. He is out in public begging for $150 million in taxpayer dollars from the city and state when both are fiscally bankrupt and cutting needed social services.

A Black alderman was quoted in the paper that before one dollar of public money is spent on the private toy of a rich family, that Ricketts would have to show that any such expenditure would help "the entire city," and create permanent jobs and economic development.  In objective reality, there is no way for Ricketts to convince this alderman.

A long losing steak hurts the club in more ways than just in the standings. A losing streak puts in the minds of the public and their leaders that it "lost money" to follow a team that cannot put a decent team on the field. Why put tax dollars into a private business that created their own money losing situation?

A losing streak also has the effect of constricting second economies around the ball park. A fan going to a game is an investment of both time and money. Ricketts has consistently raised ticket prices to such levels that a family of four really cannot afford to go to the park. In addition, the time to get to the park on city side streets, parking and the commute home puts a three hour game into six hours of time. There are many different entertainment options available to Cub fans, most cheaper and closer to home.

A losing streak also brings down an already shaky secondary ticket market. Two years ago, ticket brokers and season ticket holders who wished to "profit" from their inventory of game tickets, sold them on StubHub, eBay or in classified ads. When the Cubs were drawing 3 million fans and the bleachers were the biggest beer bash Oak Street Beach happening, the secondary ticket market was very good. So good that the Tribune set up its own scalping division.

But a recession hit, unemployed spiked up and the Cubs were no longer competitive. Season ticket holders who made money on re-sales, renewed their packages then found themselves holding unwanted tickets for most of last season. This year, the situation is worse. Chicago ticket brokers have said that they are getting "murdered" out their in the market. You can tell by the increasing number of non-sell outs (the White Sox series at Wrigley was not sold out for any game; a first) and number of no shows (which are now thousands per contest), the demand for the Cub experience is falling hard.

Just as a long losing streak has a negative effect on morale of fans, it has to have some burden upon the players. Players are a competitive animal who throughout their career have been trained to win games. But there is a fine line between being a good professional player and being a bad player being demoted back to the minors. The Cubs roster is filled with AAAA players and marginal journeymen utility bench players. The media is reporting on their losing which has to sting. When it gets to historical stories, players begin to press in order to succeed which often creates more trouble. Example, the Cubs starters are getting no run support. Ryan Dempster threw another quality start and lost 1-0. So the other starters have to believe that they need to pitch a near perfect game in order to get a victory. So they try "harder," and in the case of Matt Garza, left strikes in the middle of the plate for monster Pirate home runs.

The Cubs return home to play the woeful Padres, but the pressure is all on the Cubs to win. The Cubs are so far behind, they are basically eliminated from the playoffs before the trade deadline of July 31. As such, players must think in the back of their minds that they could be trade bait or "designated for assignment" like Blake DeWitt. A complete blow up of the roster could occur just to show the world that management realizes that this team, as constructed, need drastic change. But ownership will have none of that: it is counterproductive to its marketing campaigns. No matter what is now said in the Cub front offices, their credibility has been lost.

Supporters will say that there is one silver lining in losing: high draft picks. The example of the Washington Nationals, who have had massively poor years back to back, selected potential All Stars in Strasburg and Harper. The Nationals turnaround is shown as an example of getting top talent and turning around a team quickly. However, the one variable needs to be proven: that Theo and his team are really the genius talent evaluators. Skeptics will say that not one of the players Theo has brought to the Cubs so far has been a game changer. The Cubs have left Hendry's organization (which itself over-reached for players who busted out) in place for this year's draft.

In addition, the Cubs high pick(s) will happen in 2013 and 2014. That means players drafted in those years will need a year or two of development, which means the time table for starting a young, competitive team is 2016 or 2017 (which is at the end of Epstein's contract). It is hard to swallow paying top market prices for bad Cub baseball for another six or more seasons under the sales pitch that the Cubs will be good, soon. For this transition phase, there will be more losing streaks and losing seasons. In the end, there may be only a charred remains of a franchise doomed to bottom dwell (i.e. the Royals).

SHAKE UP

In the midst of a six game losing streak, Manager Sveum is thinking about mixing up the top three in the lineup because they are not producing runs.  The Cubs offense was woeful yesterday, with the wind blowing out at a gale. The White Sox had no trouble taking Maholm's mistakes onto Waveland Avenue. But the timid Cubs rarely got a ball out of the infield.

The top three in the order of managerial ire are DeJesus, Campana and Castro.
It seems an odd choice to single out the top of the order on "run production."

The team only has three .300 hitters: LaHair, Campana and Castro.
The team has only three 20 RBI men: LaHair, Soriano and Castro.

From a statistical standpoint, Castro is doing well batting #3.
Campana is hitting for average in the #2 hole, though his speed and bunting for hits is M.O.
DeJesus is batting .276, 1 HR, 9 RBI and 0 SB.

DeJesus is not a lead off man. However, that is the position he has played in the past and Cubs have continued it on this season. Campana is not a solid contact hitter to be a good #2 hitter, but only has speed to be a lead off guy. But his defense in CF is weak.

What will Sveum do? Flip DeJesus and Campana in the batting order?

Besides LaHair and Soriano (who recently hit his first two homers of the season), the only weak power is Stewart at third, but his .201 average and 13 RBIs has disappointment written all over that Colorado trade.
The injured catching corps has not produced sustained offense. Barney is a total non-factor at the plate.
The pre-season fact that this Cub roster is not a balanced, run producing line up has come home to roost.

Sveum appears to be ready to pull the trigger and start full time platoons (but those never work out in the end): DeJesus-Baker in RF; Barney-Cardenas at 2B; Stewart-Mather at 3B; Campana-Johnson in CF.

Then the glimmer of hope is the anticipation of Iowa sluggers to be called up and provide instant offense. Anthony Rizzo has hit 14 HRs in AAA. However, the team is not going to push him into service time while LaHair is still productive at first base. Brett Jackson could be the solid OF, #3 hitter of the future, but he is scuffling at AAA, batting under .250.  There is no rush to call up solid prospects to play part time on a bad Cubs team. This is a rebuilding season; no, more like a a season on hold until next year where the rebuilding process will start.

THE OVER-PRAISE OF WOOD

ESPNChicago poll question: is Kerry Wood in the Top 50 Cubs of all time?

It is an insult to the Cub legacy to vote yes.

As predicted, the admiration, dolting excess of pro-Wood media attention is on full bore.

But to even think Wood was the greatest Cub of all time???

Maybe the greatest disappointment of all time, as "Kid K" came to the majors with

the expectations of being the next Nolan Ryan.

But Wood's career was not even close to being considered a Hall of Famer.

He was not a dominate pitcher. As a starter, 86 wins is below average for time in the majors.

As a reliever, he was never a dominate closer with 63 saves. He stayed in the game longer

than most because of his dazzling start as a rookie and his old stats that he had a 95 mph fastball.

Power pitchers are the golden arms for general managers.

It is false praise to even consider Wood as one of the greatest Cubs of all time.

Take off the blinders, people. The objective evidence shows Wood may be a fan icon, but

not a great player.

Just look at the Cubs enshrined in Cooperstown.  It is not easy to get  voted in (ask Santo):

Pete Alexander	1918-1926
Cap Anson *	1876-1897
Richie Ashburn	1960-1961
Ernie Banks *	1953-1971
Roger Bresnahan	1900, 1913-1915
Lou Brock	1961-1964
Mordecai Brown *	1904-1912, 1916
Frank Chance *	1898-1912
John Clarkson	1884-1887
Kiki Cuyler	1928-1935
Dizzy Dean	1938-1941
Hugh Duffy	1888-1889
Dennis Eckersley	1984-1986
Johnny Evers *	1902-1913
Jimmie Foxx	1942, 1944
Clark Griffith	1893-1900
Burleigh Grimes	1932-1933
Gabby Hartnett *	1922-1940
Billy Herman *	1931-1941
Rogers Hornsby	1929-1932
Monte Irvin	1956
Fergie Jenkins *	1966-1973, 1982-1983
George Kelly	1930
King Kelly *	1880-1886
Ralph Kiner	1953-1954
Chuck Klein	1934-1936
Tony Lazzeri	1938
Fred Lindstrom	1935
Rabbit Maranville	1925
Robin Roberts	1966
Ryne Sandberg*	1982-1997
Ron Santo*	1960-74
Al Spalding	1876-1878
Joe Tinker *	1902-1912, 1916
Rube Waddell	1901
Hoyt Wilhelm	1970
Billy Williams *	1959-1974
Hack Wilson *	1926-1931
* Played more games with the Cubs than any other team.

There is 38 players right there.

And there are the players on the HOF ballot like Lee Smith and Bruce Sutter.

And there are hundreds of other good players who were All-Stars and had long, productive careers who played with the Cubs like Rick Monday, Bill Buckner, Don Kessinger, Gabby Harnett, Rick Reuschel, all were clearly better than Wood.

How Wood's name gets into the discussion of greatest Cubs of all time shows the lack of baseball intelligence.  Which is probably the explanation why the Cubs continue to draw with really bad teams; with players who also have limited baseball intelligence on the diamond. Maybe that is the Cub fan connection that keeps the franchise in limbo: hoisting praise on mediocre stars.

WOOD TO RETIRE

Numerous reports state that Kerry Wood is going to retire after today's crosstown game against the White Sox.

Many Cub fans are still in a dream state in regard to Wood. They only dream about Wood's 20 strikeout performance against the Astros.  He was turned into "Mr. Cub 2.0" on mere expectations alone.

With Mark Prior, another phenom, the Cubs were going to win several championships. End result: total failure.

Wood was part of the staff which got the Cubs to one NLCS.

Fans will remember what might have been with the power pitcher, and be confused by reality.

In his 14 year career, Wood has 85 wins.  That is a paltry 6 wins per season average. He also had 63 saves, which is a meek 4.5 saves per season average. Those are not Hall of Fame (Cooperstown or even local Chicago) numbers.  The reality is that Wood's career is that of a marginal, below average journeyman.

It may be part generational, but older fans appreciated power pitchers like Nolan Ryan. The increase in walk up ticket sales reflected who was pitching that day (for either club).

Wood had more stints on the DL than years of service in the majors.  He had flawed mechanics in his delivery (his arm would cross his chest instead of moving forward down the line towards home plate) which contributed to his injury history. One of the faults is that no one in the Cubs organization corrected those mechanical flaws. No matter how much coaching there is in professional ball, it is still the player that controls his own fate.

So the Chicago media will eulogize Wood as being a great Cub, a fan favorite, a player that the team will miss.  But it is hard to ego the brash ego on his final day. If you were going to retire, just retire. No, Wood wants all the attention this afternoon. The actual game is irrelevant. Wood will be in the bullpen getting cheers for the fans all day long. They will scream to put Wood in one last time (even if the starter has a perfect game going), just because they want to see Wood pitch one last time.

The reason Wood is retiring is that he should have retired two years ago. He does not have the command, control and power of his pitches anymore. He has imploded on the mound just like Carlos Marmol.

Baseball history is littered with the stories of "can't miss" prospects failing to reach their potential. Wood has to be added to that list.

BUNTS AND BALKS

There has been a lot of discussion recently on two minor topics that at times have big implications in a game: bunts and balks.

MLB and the umpires have agreed to change one of the rules of play. The "fake" throw to third and spin move to pick off a runner at first will become a "balk" if the pitcher's foot remains on the rubber. Currently, a pitcher can use this deceptive pick off play. The players association has yet to agree to the change.

The whole concept of a balk really should be eliminated by a rule change. Runners on the base paths use deception to get bigger leads, get into a pitcher's head about stealing, or disrupting the rhythm of pitcher. Deception should go both ways. If a pitcher can get a runner leaning off first by twisting his release like a magician beyond the 45 degree angle leg kick toward home, let him pick off the runner.

The current balk rule is too subjective to have consistent application. Some former major league pitchers admit that just about every good move to first is a balk. It has to be to have any chance to pick off the runner.

Calling a balk on a pitcher has a dramatic effect in a game. It advances a runner, and makes the pitcher steam. It throws adversarial nature of manager against umpire.

The second aspect of the game should be the simplest to execute. The bunt. Now, excuse makers call it "the art of bunting."  It is not an art, but a skill. A skill apparently lost to most major leaguers.

Sveum emphasized bunting in spring training. He had a huge bunting tournament to get his players better bunters. Sveum loves to call bunts. Including at strange times like last night's game where Castro, your best hitter, was called upon to move runners on first and second with a sacrifice with no outs. Yes, that makes no sense.

A sacrifice bunt is a simple out. The batter must turn to face the pitcher, choke down on the bat, crouch down and level the bat across his chest over the plate.  As the pitch comes in, you don't swing the bat, you merely raise or lower the barrel to make contact. The defense knows a proper bunt is coming and calls their own infield wheel plays to try to get a lead runner. A good bunter can direct the bunt to either side to force the defense to throw to first.

The mental side of bunting to a modern player is the kiss of death. It does not help the player's stats, which is the key to their long term big bonus contracts. Chicks dig the home run (remember that slogan?) Hitters want to hit,  not advance runners. There is no incentive for hitters to become good bunters. So the vast majority of players are bad bunters.

In the late 1800s, in the dead ball era, bunting for base hits and stolen bases (speed was more important than home runs) were the keys to winning low scoring games. The modern game will never go back to the simplicity of that old era. Technology and training have developed a more power game: power pitchers and power hitters. The duel between pitcher and batter is what most fans want to see.

But then again, all fans want to see their team win. And to win close games, a manufactured run via sacrifice bunt or a suicide squeeze play is becoming a lost skill set.

EXPECTATIONS

Bryce Harper has arrived for the Nationals, and people who have seen him play say "he's the real deal."

His quick rise through the minors is like the White Sox second baseman, Gordon Beckham.

Beckham quickly moved up the Sox minor league system. He only had 14 games in A ball and only 45 AA-AAA games in the year he was called up in 2009. His 2009 minor league season line was .326 BA, 4 HR 25 RBI .378 OBP.

When Beckham hit the majors, there was a cocky swagger to him. And he found instant success: in 103 games he hit .270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 7 SB, .347 OBP.

White Sox fans were delighted with their Rookie of Decade.

It is one thing to play in the majors without any pressure of organizational or fan expectations. If you come in under the radar and make a big splash, people will take notice. Fast.

But ever since Beckham's rookie season, the expectations skyrocketed on the kid. So much so that he has never gotten back to his rookie season performance.  There is always a notion of a "sophomore slump" for players, who suddenly don't have to struggle to make the team but feel more pressure to perform.

Geo Soto was that way, too. He had a blow out rookie of the year season, but has struggled with his average, power numbers and nagging injuries for the past few seasons. Instead of being a cornerstone backstop of the future, Soto is becoming just an average catcher in the minds of the fans.

In 2011, Harper played 109 games in the minors. His stat line was good: .297 average, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .392 OBP. Now he is in the big shoe making his presence known in the Nationals lineup.

How well will Harper handle the expectations in Washington? If recent history is taken into account, it is not the rookie season that is the threshold, it is the seasons afterward.

BULLPEN WOES

Cub fans have lamented about the Cubs bullpen woes.

Wild man Marmol and Mr. Irrelevant Woods. The two latest examples of

of the pitching staff imploding into its self shame.

It is also the management of the pen that concerns some:

Dolis is being overworked and Russell is now the de facto closer.

Wood is injured more than rust on a 1972 Ford.

Camp warms up more times than actual game appearances.

Bowden only comes in to mop up games that are lost.

And Lenny Castillo may have been left at the airport after the second

road trip because he is MIA. (The Rule 5 claim has to stay on the roster

or he must be tendered back to the Phillies).

So the Cubs are playing games with in reality a four man bullpen:

Camp, Marmol, Dolis and Russell.

To say the Cubs starters are overproducing to compensate for the weak

bullpen would be an understatement.

I checked the standings to be amazed that the Astros are in third in the

NL Central. The Astros? Everyone gave them up for a AAA dead team.

How are the Astros doing it? Smoke and Mirrors?

Well, they are getting some hitting from their no-name middle infield;

and a couple of power hitters have been driving in runs. So they have a

middle of the pack offense.

The starting pitcher except for Wandy Rodruiguez have been HORRIBLE.

DREADFUL. GAWD-AWFUL. The other starters have ERAs of plus 6.00.

But what is key to early season success: the Astro bullpen has been stellar,

and closer Myers has 8 saves.

A stellar bullpen apparently is the key to the Astros success, counter intuitively,

the opposite of most GMs thoughts that the key to a pitching staff is great

starting pitching.

Look at the Cubs: new management BLEW UP the bullpen to bolster the

starting rotation, and the problem this season is the poor bullpen.

Now the Astros near .500 surprising season could crash and burn at any moment,

but it is an interesting fact that bullpens really do matter just as much, or in some

cases MORE THAN a starting rotation.